Find the probability that when a deck of 52 cards is dealt…
Find the probability that when a deck of $52$ cards is dealt to four players, the first player receives exactly $n$ pairs "ace and king of the same suit".
Explanation of Method
The first player receives a random set of $13$ cards; all $\binom{52}{13}$ hands are equally likely, and the other players do not matter. For each suit the hand contains the ace and king of that suit (a pair), exactly one of them, or neither. We choose which $n$ suits give complete pairs, count the ways the other $4-n$ suits give no pair, and fill the rest of the hand with the $44$ cards that are neither aces nor kings.
Step 1: All outcomes
Only the first player's hand matters. It is a random set of $13$ cards:
\[ \binom{52}{13} = 635\,013\,559\,600. \]
Step 2: Sort the cards into three groups
- $4$ "AK pairs": for each suit, its ace and its king ($8$ cards);
- $44$ other cards (neither ace nor king).
For each suit, the hand contains both its ace and king (a pair), exactly one of them ($2$ ways), or neither ($1$ way).
Step 3: Count hands with exactly $n$ pairs
- Choose the $n$ suits whose ace and king are both in the hand: $\binom4n$ ways. This uses $2n$ cards.
- For the other $4-n$ suits, the hand must not contain both. Suppose exactly $j$ of these suits contribute one card (ace or king): choose the suits in $\binom{4-n}{j}$ ways and for each pick ace or king: $2^j$ ways.
- The remaining $13-2n-j$ cards come from the $44$ others: $\binom{44}{13-2n-j}$ ways.
Adding over $j$:
\[ \boxed{P_n = \frac{\binom4n\displaystyle\sum_{j=0}^{4-n}\binom{4-n}{j}\,2^j\binom{44}{13-2n-j}}{\binom{52}{13}}, \qquad n=0,1,2,3,4.} \]
Step 4: Another form — inclusion–exclusion
The number of hands containing $j$ specified pairs (and anything else) is $\binom{52-2j}{13-2j}$. The standard "exactly $n$" formula of inclusion–exclusion gives
\[ P_n = \frac{1}{\binom{52}{13}}\sum_{j=n}^{4}(-1)^{j-n}\binom{j}{n}\binom{4}{j}\binom{52-2j}{13-2j}. \]
Both formulas give exactly the same numbers.
Step 5: The numbers
| $n$ pairs | Number of hands | $P_n$ |
|---|---|---|
| $0$ | $495\,448\,231\,528$ | $0.7802$ |
| $1$ | $129\,927\,627\,648$ | $0.2046$ |
| $2$ | $9\,426\,859\,728$ | $0.0148$ |
| $3$ | $209\,754\,688$ | $0.000330$ |
| $4$ | $1\,086\,008$ | $0.000002$ |
| total | $635\,013\,559\,600$ | $1$ ✓ |
Most hands ($78\%$) have no ace–king pair of the same suit; getting all four such pairs happens in fewer than $2$ hands per million.
Step 6: A quick check for $n=4$
All eight aces and kings plus $5$ of the other $44$ cards: $\binom{44}{5}=1\,086\,008$ hands, and $P_4 = \binom{44}{5}/\binom{52}{13}\approx 1.7\cdot10^{-6}$. ✓
Result
| Answer | |
|---|---|
| Formula | $P_n=\binom4n\sum_{j=0}^{4-n}\binom{4-n}{j}2^j\binom{44}{13-2n-j}\Big/\binom{52}{13}$ |
| Values | $P_0\approx0.780,\ P_1\approx0.205,\ P_2\approx0.0148,\ P_3\approx0.00033,\ P_4\approx1.7\cdot10^{-6}$ |