Problem 17
Hard Random Events

Prove that the events A, overlineAB and overlineA+B form a…

Prove that the events \[ A, \qquad \overline{A}B \qquad\text{and}\qquad \overline{A+B} \] form a complete system of events.

Explanation of Method

A family of events is a complete system when (1) any two of them are incompatible (their product is $\varnothing$) and (2) their sum is the certain event $\Omega$. In other words, in every trial exactly one of the events occurs. We first rewrite $\overline{A+B}=\overline{A}\,\overline{B}$ with De Morgan's law, then check the three products and the sum using $X\overline{X}=\varnothing$ and $X+\overline{X}=\Omega$.

Step 1: Definition of a complete system

Events $H_1, H_2, \dots, H_n$ form a complete system if

Together: in each trial exactly one of them occurs.

Step 2: Rewrite the third event

By De Morgan's law, $\overline{A+B}=\overline{A}\,\overline{B}$ ("neither $A$ nor $B$ occurs"). So the three events are

\[ H_1 = A, \qquad H_2 = \overline{A}B, \qquad H_3 = \overline{A}\,\overline{B}. \]

Step 3: They are pairwise incompatible

\[ H_1H_2 = A\,\overline{A}B = (A\overline{A})B = \varnothing B = \varnothing, \]

\[ H_1H_3 = A\,\overline{A}\,\overline{B} = (A\overline{A})\overline{B} = \varnothing, \]

\[ H_2H_3 = \overline{A}B\,\overline{A}\,\overline{B} = (\overline{A}\,\overline{A})(B\overline{B}) = \overline{A}\,\varnothing = \varnothing. \]

Each product contains an event multiplied by its own opposite, so it is impossible. ✓

Step 4: Their sum is the certain event

Take $\overline{A}$ out of the last two terms:

\[ A + \overline{A}B + \overline{A}\,\overline{B} = A + \overline{A}(B+\overline{B}) = A + \overline{A}\,\Omega = A + \overline{A} = \Omega. \ \checkmark \]

Both conditions hold, so $A$, $\overline{A}B$, $\overline{A+B}$ form a complete system. $\blacksquare$

$\Omega$ $A$ $\overline{A}B$ $\overline{A+B}$
  • $A$
  • $\overline{A}B$: $B$ without $A$
  • $\overline{A+B}=\overline{A}\,\overline{B}$: neither
The three coloured regions do not overlap and together fill all of $\Omega$ — a complete system of events.

Step 5: Why it works — two questions

Sort any outcome by asking two questions in turn:

  1. Does $A$ occur? If yes, the outcome is in $H_1=A$.
  2. If no: does $B$ occur? If yes, the outcome is in $H_2=\overline{A}B$; if no, it is in $H_3=\overline{A}\,\overline{B}$.

Every outcome gets exactly one answer path, so it lands in exactly one of the three events.

Step 6: Example with a die

$\Omega=\{1,\dots,6\}$, $A=\{1,2\}$, $B=\{2,3,4\}$. Then

\[ A=\{1,2\}, \qquad \overline{A}B=\{3,4\}, \qquad \overline{A+B}=\overline{\{1,2,3,4\}}=\{5,6\}. \]

These three sets do not overlap and together give $\{1,\dots,6\}$. Note that the outcome $2$ belongs to both $A$ and $B$, but it is counted only in $A$. ✓

Step 7: A useful consequence

For a complete system the probabilities add up to $1$:

\[ P(A) + P(\overline{A}B) + P(\overline{A+B}) = 1. \]

Also, since $A+B = A + \overline{A}B$ with incompatible terms, $P(A+B) = P(A) + P(\overline{A}B)$ — a way to compute the probability of a sum without double counting.


Result

ConditionCheckHolds?
Pairwise incompatible$A\cdot\overline{A}B=\varnothing,\ \ A\cdot\overline{A}\,\overline{B}=\varnothing,\ \ \overline{A}B\cdot\overline{A}\,\overline{B}=\varnothing$✓
Sum is certain$A+\overline{A}B+\overline{A}\,\overline{B}=A+\overline{A}(B+\overline{B})=A+\overline{A}=\Omega$✓
Conclusion$A,\ \overline{A}B,\ \overline{A+B}$ form a complete system of events